METALLICA First-Week Predictions
Plus: Spotify Charts, Apple Music, Podcasts, RIAA Certifications
In This Issue:
Early data and first-week predictions for 72 Seasons, the first METALLICA album since 2016, which arrived on April 14.
All of Metallica’s RIAA sales certifications.
Linkin Park, Metallica, Fall Out Boy, Deftones, Nirvana, Paramore, blink-182, and the top Hard Rock, Metal, Punk(ish) artists on Spotify right now.
The Top 100 Rock Albums on Apple Music right now.
The Top 25 Hard Music Interview shows on Apple Podcasts.
Last month’s highest-grossing Hard Rock tours.1
What kind of first-week will METALLICA have?
Their past six albums all topped the Billboard 200.
There are six vinyl variants available and two cassettes.
The band is everywhere, from Howard Stern to a residency on Jimmy Kimmel Live. Their tour begins in Amsterdam on April 27.
Morgan Wallen’s One Thing At A Time did 167,000 album equivalent units for a sixth straight week at No. 1 last week. HITS Daily Double predicts 72 Seasons will do 150,000 equivalent albums (137,000 of those in album sales). They project Wallen’s will do 167,000 in total activity (only 7000 from sales).
If correct, this will see Wallen No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for a seventh week but should put Metallica at No. 1 in Album Sales, regardless.
Metallica's first-week sales history:
291,000 / 282,000 - Hardwired… (2016)
490,000 - Death Magnetic (2008)
417,000 - St. Anger (2003)
436,000 - Reload (1997)
680,000 - Load (1996)
598,000 - Metallica (1991)
In our in-depth conversation about 72 Seasons on Speak N’ Destroy (taped well before HITS reported anything), me and my pals Andrew Carter and Eric German made some predictions of our own. Eric said, “Between 80k and 125k.” Andrew projected “at least 100k.” I came in at “between 100k and 150k.”
In the UK, 72 Seasons looks likely to become Metallica’s fourth No. 1 album, according to Official Charts, joining Death Magnetic, Load, and the Black Album.
Waterparks should have their first Top 10 UK album, coming in at No. 2.
Metallica RIAA Certifications
16x PLATINUM
Metallica (1991)
8x PLATINUM
…And Justice For All (1988)
6x PLATINUM
Master Of Puppets (1986)
Ride The Lightning (1984)
5x PLATINUM
S&M (1999)
Garage Inc. (1998)
Load (1996)
3x PLATINUM
Reload (1997)
Kill ‘Em All (1983)
2x PLATINUM
Death Magnetic (2008)
St. Anger (2003)
PLATINUM
Hardwired... To Self-Destruct (2016)
The 5.98 E.P. - Garage Days Re-Revisited (1987)
Top Hard Rock Tours - March 2023
According to Billboard Boxscore
JOURNEY $15M gross / 160k attendees / 15 shows
MUSE $10.7M gross / 117k attendees / 11 shows
GRETA VAN FLEET $6M / 86k attendees / 10 shows
Top Hard Rock & Metal Tours
By Recent Tickets Sold (Pollstar)
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS 39,436 Avg. Tickets (3 shows)
DEF LEPPARD / MÖTLEY CRÜE 32,640 Avg. (3 shows)
JOURNEY 12,113 Avg. Tickets (4 shows)
MUSE 11,056 Avg. (4 shows)
GRETA VAN FLEET 8631 (10 shows)
HEAVEN SHALL BURN / TRIVIUM 2973 (7 shows)
SKID ROW / BUCKCHERRY 1332 (11 shows)
Spotify Top Artists 🌎
Hard Rock, Metal, Punk(ish)
April 19, 2023
Linkin Park (No. 46 overall)
Metallica (No. 72)
Red Hot Chili Peppers (No. 109)
Nirvana (No. 135)
AC/DC (No. 140)
Spotify Top Artists 🇺🇸
Hard Rock, Metal, Punk(ish)
April 19, 2023
Linkin Park (No. 62 overall)
Metallica (No. 71)
Fall Out Boy (No. 93)
Deftones (No. 103)
Nirvana (No. 117)
Queen (No. 120)
Red Hot Chili Peppers (No. 125)
Paramore (No. 136)
blink-182 (No. 147)
Machine Gun Kelly (No. 158)
Panic! At The Disco (No. 163)
Foo Fighters (No. 170)
AC/DC (No. 175)
Green Day (No. 176)
System Of A Down (No. 185)
System Of A Down’s “Chop Suey” just joined Spotify’s BILLIONS CLUB.
Apple Podcasts
Hard Music Interviews 🇺🇸
The Eddie Trunk Podcast (PodcastOne)
HardLore: Stories from Tour (Knotfest)
The Punk Rock MBA (Finn Mckenty/STM)
Turned Out A Punk (Turned Out A Punk)
Garza Podcast (Chris Garza)
Dean Delray’s Let There Be Talk (Cactus Radio)
Artist Friendly w/ Joel Madden (AltPress)
One Life One Chance w/ Toby Morse (Toby Morse)
The Brooklyn Vegan Show (Brooklyn Vegan)
The Downbeat (Craig Reynolds)
The Jasta Show (GaS Digital Network)
Lead Singer Syndrome (Shane Told)
The MetalSucks Podcast (The Orchard)
Washed Up Emo (Tom Mullen)
URM Podcast (Eyal Levi)
The Ex-Man with Doc Coyle (STM)
Fat Mike’s Fat Mic (Fat Mike)
The Peer Pleasure Podcast (EVR/STM)
100 Words Or Less (iHeartPodcasts)
The Riffhard Podcast (Riffhard)
Talk Toomey (Josh Toomey/Knotfest)
Speak N’ Destroy w/ Ryan J. Downey (PopCurse)
Going Off Track (Horowitz/Worrell)
That One Time On Tour (STM)
Guitar Villains (Tyler Larson)
Apple Music 🇺🇸
Top 100 Rock Albums - April 20, 2023
(I’ve included only albums released in the 21st century.)
Metallica 72 Seasons
Sleep Token Take Me Back To Eden
Daisy Jones & The Six AURORA
Bad Omens THE DEATH OF PEACE OF MIND
LINKIN PARK Meteora (20th Anniversary Edition)
LINKIN PARK Hybrid Theory
EXTREME SIX
Linkin Park Meteora
System Of A Down Toxicity
I Prevail TRUE POWER
Jelly Roll Ballads of the Broken
Nickelback All The Right Reasons
Three Days Grace One-X
Dayseeker Dark Sun
LINKIN PARK Minutes to Midnight
My Chemical Romance Three Cheers…
TOOL Fear Inoculum
Greta Van Fleet The Battle At Garden’s Gate
Greta Van Fleet From The Fires
The Amity Affliction Not Without My Ghosts
Atreyu The Hope of a Spark EP
Maroon 5 Songs About Jane
Backseat Lovers When We Were Friends
Sleep Token This Place Will Become…
Deftones White Pony
John Mayer Continuum
TOOL Lateralus
Jack Johnson In Between Dreams
Shinedown Planet Zero
The Acacia Strain Step Into The Light
Deftones Saturday Night Wrist
TOOL 10,000 Days
Motionless In White Scoring…
Whiskey Myers Firewater
blink-182 blink-182
Måneskin RUSH!
Deftones Diamond Eyes
Evanescence Fallen
Nickelback Get Rollin’
U2 Songs Of Surrender
Audioslave Audioslave
Godsmack Lighting Up the Sky
Shinedown The Sound of Madness
Overkill Scorched
Invent Animate Heavener
Greta Van Fleet Anthem…
Spiritbox Eternal Blue
Limp Bizkit Chocolate Starfish…
Lorna Shore Pain Remains
The Fray How To Save A Life
Turnstile GLOW ON
I Prevail TRAUMA
Periphery V: Djent Is Not A Genre
Sleep Token Sundowning
WILLOW <COPINGMECHANISM>
Bad Omens Finding God Before…
ZillaKami DOG BOY
Polyphia Remember That You Will Die
Muse Will Of The People
Avenged Sevenfold Nightmare
Peyton Parrish The Most Magical…
Jesus Piece …So Unknown
August Burns Red Death Below
System Of A Down Mezmerize
Bring Me The Horizon Sempiternal
Staind Break The Cycle
Mt. Joy Orange Blood
Falling In Reverse The Drug In Me…
Avenged Sevenfold Avenged Sevenfold
Godsmack When Legends Rise
A Day To Remember Homesick
Currents The Death We Seek
Daughtry Daughtry
Bring Me The Horizon That’s The Spirit
Avenged Sevenfold Hail To The King
Bring Me The Horizon POST HUMAN
Ice Nine Kills Welcome To Horrorwood
Ghost IMPERA
Dayseeker Sleeptalk
Metallica Hardwired… To Self-Destruct
Avril Lavigne Let Go (20th Anniversary)
Deftones Koi No Yokan
Knocked Loose Laugh Tracks
Fruit Bats A River Running to Your Heart
Disturbed Divisive
Rainbow Kitten Surprise Seven + Mary
City Morgue TOXIC BOOGALOO
Breaking Benjamin Phobia
Disturbed The Sickness
Giovannie And The Hired Guns Tejano Punk Boyz
Slipknot The End, So Far
Pierce The Veil Misadventures
Deftones Ohms
Wage War Manic
Noel Gallagher Council Skies
RADWIIMPS Suzume (Soundtrack)
Skillet Awake
Motionless In White Disguise
Dance Gavin Dance Jackpot Juicer
The Devil Wears Prada Color Decay
Sources: Apple, Billboard, Pollstar, RIAA, Spotify, Misc.